- Kentucky May 2008 Primary Election Preview Analysis and Voter's Guide

Kentucky May 2008 Primary Election Preview Analysis and Voter's Guide

Written by Guillermo Brown

Saturday, May 10, 2008

Kentucky Primary Macro Analysis:

Delegate Horserace

There are 51 Pledged delegates at stake in the Bluegrass State. More than half of the 9 Superdelegates have already placed their bets. Hillary Clinton has three Superdelegates on her side while Barack Obama has two. Recently elected Goveror and Superdelegate Steve Beshear has not yet picked a favorite.

Moderate to Conservative Voters

"Moral Values" was cited as the most important issue on the 2004 Kentucky Presidential election exit polls. "Economy/Jobs" ranked second with 18%. In the last two contests, George W. Bush defeated Al Gore by 15.13% in 2000 and John Kerry by 17.33% in 2004.

In 2007, Kentucky elected a pro-gun and pro-gambling Democratic Governor. Currently, only one out of the six U.S. House of Representative seats is held by a Democrat.

Democratic Members Only

Kentucky has 1,629,845 Democrats registered to vote in the primary. The state runs a closed primary, only allowing Democrats the opportunity to cast a ballot for either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Kentucky law prohibits previously registered voters from changing their party after the end of the prior year, reducing the effect of late Republican ship jumpers from changing the opposing party's nomination path. Absentee or early voting is reserved only for people who have a good reason such as having a disability or having to work overseas.

Kentucky Polls: Hillary On Track

Hillary Clinton is ahead in the race with polls consistently showing her leading with more than thirty points over the Illinois Senator. Barack Obama is gaining slightly, however, Clinton is close to crossing the finish line.

Campaign Stops

Hillary Clinton spoke at Kentucky's Democratic Fundraiser held in Louisville, May 9. Barack Obama promises to campaign in the state in the middle of May. The Democratic front runner previously made two stops in the state.

Past Elections

Past Elections Results

Kentucky Results for the 2000 Presidential Election:

George W. Bush - 56.50%; 872,492 Votes
Al Gore - 41.37% 638,898 Votes

Bush Margin of Victory 15.13

Kentucky Results for the 2004 Presidential Election:

George W. Bush - 59.55%; 1,069,439 Votes
John Kerry - 42.22%; 712,733 Votes

Bush Margin of Victory 17.33

Exit Poll Information

Exit poll for the 2004 election showed that voters thought that "Moral Values" was the most important issue registering at 26% and "Economy/Jobs" second at 18%, according to CNN.

Also, Bill Clinton carried Kentucky in 1992 and 1996.

State Government

Governor

Steve Beshear (Democrat) Elected 2007

U.S. Senators

Mitch McConnell (Republican) Elected in 1984
Jim Bunning (Republican) Elected in 1998

U.S. Representatives

6 Total, 4 Republicans, 2 Democrats
(R-KY1) Ed Whitfield
(R-KY2) Ron Lewis
(D-KY3) John Yarmuth
(R-KY4) Geoff Davis
(R-KY5) Hal Rogers
(R-KY6) Ben Chandler

Delegates

51 Pledged Delegates Up for Grabs May 20, 2008

Superdelegates

9 TOTAL, 3 for Clinton, 2 for Obama

Endorsed Clinton:

Jo Etta Wickliffe - Banker
Moretta Bosley of Owensboro - Democratic National Committeewoman
Terry McBrayer - Democratic National Committee Member

Endorsed Obama

Representative Ben Chandler
Representative John Yarmuth

Undecided

Governor Steve Beshear
Jennifer Moore - Kentucky Democratic Chair
Nathan Smith - Kentucky Democratic Vice Chairman

Voter Stats

REGISTRATION NUMBERS AS OF MARCH 2008

TOTAL DEMOCRAT: 1,629,845 (57.0%)
TOTAL REPUBLICAN: 1,040,438 (36.4%)
TOTAL OTHERS: 186,948 (6.5%)
TOTAL REGISTERED 2,857,231
MALE (ALL PARTIES): 1,344,579 (47.1%)
FEMALE (ALL PARTIES): 1,512,503 (52.9%)

Voting Process

December 31: Last Day to Switch Party

April 21: New Voter Registration Deadline

May 20: Kentucky's Primary Election Day.

Kentucky polls are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on May 20. Voters can find their polling location on the Kentucky Elections website.

Kentucky's Democratic Primary is open to registered Democrats only. The deadline for new voter registration was April 21, 2008. Kentucky law prohibits voters from switching parties after December 31 the prior year, effectively disqualifying late party hoppers from voting in either primary.

Kentucky offers absentee ballots who have impediments to be present on May 20. However, this method is available only to voters with reasons including disabilities, illness, service overseas.

Polls

Poll Data

Kentucky Democratic Primary Election Polls: April 3 - April 5
Poll Source	Dates Polls Were Taken	Hillary Clinton	Barack Obama	Margin of Lead	Lead Change from last poll
Survey USA	April 26, 2008 - April 28, 2008	63%	27%	36%	-
Survey USA	May 3, 2008 - May 5, 2008	62%	28%	34%	-02%

Clinton has a strong lead in the upcoming primary with a 34 point lead in the beginning of May. These polls were taken before the Indiana and North Carolina primary results.