Oregon Primary Macro Analysis:

Delegates At Stake

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are vying for Oregon's 52 pledged delegates and 13 Superdelegates. Currently, the majority of Oregon Superdelegates remain uncommitted and probably will not endorse either candidate until after the May 20 election.

Both candidates have a pair of Superdelegates. U.S. House Representatives John Wu and Earl Blumenauer are within Obama's ranks. However, Clinton holds the state's trump card; the campaign has twice elected Governor Ted Kulongoski on hand to rally Oregon voters.

Read More For iNewsTube.com's Full Analysis and Let Us Know What You Think On Our 2008 Oregon Primary Election Forum

A Mix of Moderate and Progressive Voters

Oregon might be considered slightly more liberal than other states. 80% of the U.S. House Representative positions are held by Democrats. The electorate chose Al Gore and John Kerry over Bush in the 2000 and 2004 contests. A two-term Democrat currently holds the Pacific Nortwest state's Executive Office. According to 2004 election exit polls, more than a quarter of the voters cited 'Will Bring Change' as the most important Presidential quality.

Democratic Members Only

Only registered Oregon Democrats are allowed to participate in the party's primary election. The Oregon Party also has a policy instructing voters who have signed a petition to elect any candidate for another party should not vote in the Democratic primary. Many Oregonians have switched from non-affiliated and Republican registration status to Democratic in order to be participate in the party's process.

Primary Day: May 20

From May 2, Oregon sent out ballot packages to Oregon voters. Voters are asked to either mail or dropoff their ballots to county elections offices. The ballot must be present at the elections office by 8pm of the election day. The official counting of ballots will start May 20, 2008.

Access, Information, and Accountability

Oregonians are very active in voting. This is evidenced by the state's report showing 73.3% of the eligible residents registered to vote in 2006. 70.8% of these registered voters actually cast a ballot. The enthusiasism to participate may be partly due to Oregon's statewide mail-in or drop off voting system.

Examining Oregon's level of voting access, iNewsTube finds the state's voting period is less restrictive than other caucus and primary state's time intensive and time specific voting periods. A provision in Oregon's Voter's Bill of Rights insures that some of the least among us, the homeless, are given a chance to cast a ballot.

Looking at the amount of information provided by the state, we discovered that the state produces and mails out a voter's pamphlet with each candidate's and ballot measure's position. The state website provides helpful guides and answers to frequently asked questions.

Finally, the state's effort in accountability is commendable. The state offers a chance for the public to view any stage of the process. Ballots are enclosed in secrecy envelopes to prevent premature peeking. Next, this envelope should be enclosed in a barcoded and voter signed return envelope and either dropped off or mailed to the county election's office. Upon the arrival at the election's office, the return envelope's barcode is then entered in a database in which allows voters to confirm receipt of their ballot by phone. The secrecy envelopes will be opened and ballots counted on the day of the election.

Obama Leading Polls

Survey USA's poll completed on April 28 shows the freshman Illinois Senator ahead 50% to 44%. However, this lead has diminished from a ten point lead held early April. A Rasmussen telephone poll conducted on May 1, shows Obama ahead of Clinton by a larger margin, 51% to 39%.

Debate To Debate

Hillary Clinton is currently circulating a petition to debate Barack Obama in Oregon. Oregonians may stand with the former first lady in order to bring the two candidates closer for a side by side comparison. Barack Obama may portray the debate as unnecessary due to the popular media perception of presumption after the predictable double digit win in North Carolina and almost winning in early voting enabled Indiana.

Trees Breed Huggers

The timber rich state's population has a strong environmentalist activist base including theOregon Environmental Council and Central Oregon Environmental Center. Both candidates can appeal to Oregon voters by promoting the use of renewable energy sources and conservation.

In terms of pure message, Clinton may have the edge with the campaign's Oregon Compact. Clinton's state specific proposal leads with the promise of green jobs, a pathway to energy independence, and protection of Oregon's right to determine the location of liquified natural gas terminals. The Illinois Senator also has a plan addressing energy and environment, which includes reducing carbon emissions by 80% by 2050, support of next generation biofuels, and a 150 billion dollar investment in various clean energy technologies within 10 Years.

In terms of message delivery, Barack Obama may have the upperhand with his ability to draw in large crowds. The Senator has a vast resource of cash contributions allowing him to saturate Oregon with radio, print, mail, and television ads. The Obama campaign also operates 11 more official Oregon campaign offices than Clinton .

Nuclear Power Option

Barack Obama's position is open to the use of 'Safe and Secure Nuclear Energy'. His policy paper found his website, states that it 'is unlikely that we can meet our aggressive climate goals if we eliminate nuclear power from the table.'

Addressing Nuclear Power' Hillary Clinton's campaign states that 'energy efficiency and renewables are better options for addressing global warming and meeting our future power needs, because of significant unresolved concerns about the cost of producing nuclear power, the safety of operating plants, waste disposal, and nuclear proliferation.'

Gas Tax Holiday

Hillary Clinton may find support in the Pacific Northwest with her temporary national gas tax holiday proposal. However, it is not clear how many votes will move to Clinton's side due to the promotion of this plan. Regardless, Oregon currently has the 9th highest unleaded gas price average at $3.67 a gallon with truck drivers paying $4.36 on average for a gallon of diesel. Unlike Senator John McCain's plan, Clinton proposes to fund a gas tax holiday by taxing the windfall profits of oil companies. Barack Obama defines Clinton's plan as a 'Washington con game'. Obama states that a gas tax holiday will save the average American about $28 over a course of three months and may actually increase gas prices in the long run.

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